Market · Buying
27 August 2026 · Rafaella Galardo
It seems to make no sense. If fewer homes are being sold, shouldn't prices come down? It is the question we hear almost every week. The answer is simple once you understand one thing: what is missing is not buyers. It is homes.
A recent study by CENTURY 21 Portugal, combining data from INE (Instituto Nacional de Estatística, the national statistics office), Confidencial Imobiliário and Banco de Portugal, paints a picture of the market in the first half of 2026. Here are the facts:
It means the desire to buy is still there — what changed is the ability to see it through.
People view, search, do their sums. But they close fewer deals. Three reasons explain this: high prices, the shortage of supply (there are few homes for sale) and the financial effort being asked of families.
Ricardo Sousa, CEO of CENTURY 21 Portugal, sums it up well: "The market is not losing interest on the buyers' side; it is converting less demand into transactions."
Here is the heart of the matter. Imagine a street with ten families looking for a home and only two homes for sale.
If only two homes change hands that year, the number of sales is low. But the ten families are still competing for the same two homes — and whoever offers most, wins. The price rises, even with few sales.
That is exactly what is happening in Portugal. There are not enough homes. Until new construction keeps up with demand, prices will not fall simply because fewer units are being sold.
Indeed, the consultancy itself expects a resilient but more selective market in the second half — and considers a structural fall in prices unlikely while supply does not keep up with demand.
One figure explains a great deal: in the first quarter, 87% of transactions were made by families, and existing housing accounted for 80.4% of deals.
In other words: the market rests heavily on owners trading homes between themselves. Someone who already owns a home sells it, keeps the capital gain (the difference between what they paid and what they received) and uses that money as the down payment on the next home.
A practical example. A family bought a T2 (two-bedroom apartment) in Estoril twelve years ago for €200,000. Today they sell it for €450,000, they have already paid off much of the loan, and they are left with considerable room to put down a deposit on a T3 (three-bedroom) with a garden. They do not need to save for ten years: the asset they already owned does that work for them.
This is where it hurts. As Ricardo Sousa puts it: "Those who want to buy for the first time do not have that accumulated asset and face a far greater financial effort to enter the market."
Someone buying their first home has nothing to sell. They have to put together the down payment out of savings, they have to cover the taxes and the costs of the deed, and they have to secure an instalment compatible with their income.
Here comes a term you will hear at the bank: debt-to-income ratio (taxa de esforço). It is the percentage of monthly income committed to loan repayments. If you earn €2,000 a month and the home loan instalment is €700, your debt-to-income ratio is 35%. Banks look closely at this number — as a rule, the higher it is, the harder approval becomes.
If you are in this situation, it is worth reading our guide first on what it really costs to buy a home in Portugal in 2026 — because the price of the property is only the start of the sum.
Yes, and plenty of it. The Banco de Portugal figures show it clearly:
Translated: the banks are lending more. The problem is not the financing — it is finding the right home, at the right price, before another buyer does.
You are on the favourable side of the market, but there is a real risk: coordination. If you sell first and do not find a home in time, you are left with nowhere to live. If you buy first and do not sell in time, you end up with two loans at once.
At a time when supply is scarce, this timetable has to be designed carefully — promissory contract deadlines, conditions precedent, deed dates. It is technical work, and it is where money is won or lost.
Prepare the financing before you start viewing. With little supply, the good homes go fast and whoever arrives with bank approval already in hand has the advantage over someone who is still about to start the process. Also set your real limit — not the maximum the bank approves, but the figure you can sleep soundly with.
The demand is there, but buyers are more demanding and better informed. Homes that are poorly prepared or priced above the market sit still — and a home that sits still loses negotiating value with every month that passes. The right initial price remains the single most important decision in the whole process.
In a market that converts less demand into deals, the difference lies in the preparation. That is what we do.
For those who buy, we give access to properties before they reach the open market, we help prepare the financing and we run a full simulation of costs before any offer. For those who sell, we bring a valuation grounded in real comparables from the Cascais coastline and a pricing strategy that does not leave the home stranded.
And for those who want to do both at once, we coordinate the selling and buying timetable so that you end up neither without a home nor with two loans. Start by looking at the properties available or talk to us.
Source: Casa Yes (11-08-2026). General information only. Every case should be analysed individually.
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